Value-at-risk (VaR) - translation to αραβικά
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Value-at-risk (VaR) - translation to αραβικά

ESTIMATED, AS YET UNREALISED LOSS FOR AN INVESTMENT FOR A GIVEN SET OF CONDITIONS
Value at Risk; Value-At-Risk; Value-at-Risk; Value-at-risk
  • The 5% Value at Risk of a hypothetical profit-and-loss probability density function

Value-at-risk (VaR)      
القيمة المعرضة للمخاطر
At par         
STATED VALUE OR FACE VALUE
At par; Under par; Over par; Par-value stock; Stock value; Par exchange rate
بسعر التعادل ، بالقيمة اَلِاسْمِيَّة
Under par         
STATED VALUE OR FACE VALUE
At par; Under par; Over par; Par-value stock; Stock value; Par exchange rate
أكل من قيمة التعادل،-- القيمة اَلِاسْمِيَّة

Ορισμός

par value

Βικιπαίδεια

Value at risk

Value at risk (VaR) is a measure of the risk of loss for investments. It estimates how much a set of investments might lose (with a given probability), given normal market conditions, in a set time period such as a day. VaR is typically used by firms and regulators in the financial industry to gauge the amount of assets needed to cover possible losses.

For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability p, the p VaR can be defined informally as the maximum possible loss during that time after excluding all worse outcomes whose combined probability is at most p. This assumes mark-to-market pricing, and no trading in the portfolio.

For example, if a portfolio of stocks has a one-day 95% VaR of $1 million, that means that there is a 0.05 probability that the portfolio will fall in value by more than $1 million over a one-day period if there is no trading. Informally, a loss of $1 million or more on this portfolio is expected on 1 day out of 20 days (because of 5% probability).

More formally, p VaR is defined such that the probability of a loss greater than VaR is (at most) (1-p) while the probability of a loss less than VaR is (at least) p. A loss which exceeds the VaR threshold is termed a "VaR breach".

It is important to note that, for a fixed p, the p VaR does not assess the magnitude of loss when a VaR breach occurs and therefore is considered by some to be a questionable metric for risk management. For instance, assume someone makes a bet that flipping a coin seven times will not give seven heads. The terms are that they win $100 if this does not happen (with probability 127/128) and lose $12,700 if it does (with probability 1/128). That is, the possible loss amounts are $0 or $12,700. The 1% VaR is then $0, because the probability of any loss at all is 1/128 which is less than 1%. They are, however, exposed to a possible loss of $12,700 which can be expressed as the p VaR for any p ≤ 0.78125% (1/128).

VaR has four main uses in finance: risk management, financial control, financial reporting and computing regulatory capital. VaR is sometimes used in non-financial applications as well. However, it is a controversial risk management tool.

Important related ideas are economic capital, backtesting, stress testing, expected shortfall, and tail conditional expectation.

Παραδείγματα από το σώμα κειμένου για Value-at-risk (VaR)
1. The hedge fund industry prides itself on its "value at risk" (VAR) models.
2. A classic example illustrating this point would be in trying to look at portfolio Value at Risk (VaR) for which there are three well known methodologies but two of which assume that price distributions follow a log normal pattern, which is unrealistic at best.